The Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, led by Professor Fred Carstensen, released its latest Economic Outlook in mid-December.

Even while jobs are returning to Connecticut’s economy, the apparently encouraging seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate of 7.5% for 2013Q3 needs to be compared with the Seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate of 7.9%. The improving unemployment rate is in large measure a result of declining participation in the workforce. Nearly 65,000 working-age adults simply stopped looking for employment since 2010Q2.

Continuing productivity gains often approaching (or even exceeding) 2% annually translate into no job creation unless the economy grows even faster. Even at the national level, job creation remains modest for this reason. Ironically, Connecticut’s strength in manufacturing, which typically delivers quite high productivity growth, is a concomitant of fewer jobs, and thus a challenge for job creation.

Full-time equivalents (FTEs) have risen 43,000 over the three years. With gains in FTEs and loses in the number jobs, the ratio of FTEs to jobs in Connecticut has risen, which can be an indicator of further job growth.

Read the Full December 2013 Outlook