Research Seminar with Rajesh Bagchi, Virginia Tech

On the invitation of the Marketing Department, Professor Rajesh Bagchi from Virginia Tech gave a research seminar titled, “Is a 70% Forecast More Accurate than a 30% Forecast?” on Friday, March 27. This research examines how level of a forecast affects inferences about forecasts and forecasters. Specifically, forecasters often state the probability when making predictions about uncertain events (e.g., sporting games, stock fluctuations). Professor Bagchi demonstrates that when the forecasted probability is higher versus lower (e.g., a 70% vs. 30% chance of ‘Team A’ winning a game) consumers infer that the forecaster is more confident in her prediction, has conducted more in-depth analyses, and is more trustworthy. The prediction is also judged as more accurate. He also explores the reason behind this interesting phenomenon and identifies its boundary conditions.


Rajesh Bagchi







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